Joseph Petviashvili ([info]krotty) wrote,
@ 2007-12-06 20:04:00
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Party's Share vs. Voter Turnout (%) in 2007 Parlament Elections in Russia
image
Guess which party is Putin's (hint - correlation coefficient is 90%). X axis: percent voter turnout at a given territory, Y axis: percent voted for a given party. Each dot is an election territory.

via russian blogs: original data, explanation?.

Update: my interpretation

Update 2: Uploaded to Swivel:

For Putin and Invalid ballots vs Turnout %

Update 3: For comparison - the same graph for 2006 elections in Canada:
image

Update 4: Much more detailed version:
Detailed Putin's party share and invalid ballots by turnout

Update 5: A simple model of elections that explains the data.

Update 6: Final election results are available, now if you plot party share out of all registered voters vs turnout you get 97% correlation:

Update 7: Excellent slashdot discussion

Update 8: More evidence via
Russian Elections 2007 Fraud: number of precincts reporting turnout %
x axis - turnout percent, y axis - number of elections commissions reporting this turnout, notice the peaks are exactly on the round numbers.

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[info]mvf
2007-12-07 08:08 am UTC (link)
Looks both impressive and sad.
Thanks a lot!

(Reply to this)

[info]dima_i
2007-12-07 09:24 am UTC (link)
There was yet another plot (here) of the vote results vs. percentage of invalid bulletins. It may therefore be interesting to generate the third plot: attendance vs. invalid bulletins, which should give an "unbiased" (to any party) evidence of correlations.

(Reply to this)(Thread)

[info]whatevergospodi
2007-12-08 01:36 am UTC (link)
http://www.swivel.com/graphs/show/25160639

(Reply to this)(Parent)

[info]yuksiyuksi
2007-12-07 02:07 pm UTC (link)
Нда. Кто бы сомневался

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Google Translation to English
(Anonymous)
2007-12-09 12:59 am UTC (link)
NDA. Who would doubt

(Reply to this)(Parent)(Thread)
Re: Google Translation to English - [info]yuksiyuksi, 2007-12-09 03:01 pm UTC

[info]cher_no_more
2007-12-07 08:24 pm UTC (link)
Mathkiller!

(Reply to this)

(Anonymous)
2007-12-08 01:12 am UTC (link)
Welcome to Slashdot.

(Reply to this)

[info]whatevergospodi
2007-12-08 01:39 am UTC (link)
Data has been uploaded to http://www.swivel.com/data_sets/show/1010698

(Reply to this)

[info]jerom
2007-12-08 07:01 am UTC (link)
Do not forget about this region.

Have you seen it before?

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Hahaha.
(Anonymous)
2007-12-08 02:01 pm UTC (link)
This would be really funny if this wasn't happening right by our (Polish) border...

This is simply impossible that 100% people who voted, had choosen Putin's party.

(Reply to this)(Parent)(Thread)
Re: Hahaha. - [info]krotty, 2007-12-08 05:13 pm UTC
Re: Hahaha. - (Anonymous), 2007-12-08 09:19 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]von_oberstein, 2007-12-09 10:47 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]yuksiyuksi, 2007-12-09 03:05 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]yuksiyuksi, 2007-12-09 03:28 pm UTC
Bad Craftsmanship
(Anonymous)
2007-12-08 02:04 pm UTC (link)
It is really sad to see that such a badly rigged Election does not stir more public outrage. Well, the Election that brought Bush to the Throne was worse.
I for one am really glad that most Elections in Europe are done with so much more skill. ;-)

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Re: Bad Craftsmanship - (Anonymous), 2007-12-08 07:57 pm UTC
Re: Bad Craftsmanship - (Anonymous), 2007-12-10 12:19 pm UTC
Re: Bad Craftsmanship - (Anonymous), 2007-12-10 02:59 pm UTC
Re: Bad Craftsmanship - (Anonymous), 2008-01-19 07:49 am UTC

(Reply from suspended user)
Google Translation to English - (Anonymous), 2007-12-09 12:58 am UTC

[info]phillennium
2007-12-08 11:00 pm UTC (link)
Yes, it looks very sad. But there is a worse thing: it looks like most people in Russia don't give a damn about this fraud, so Putin can do whatever he wants.

(Reply to this)
"given territory"
(Anonymous)
2007-12-09 02:49 am UTC (link)
If the territories vary significantly in population size then smaller territories might dominate the high percentage turnouts and provide a somewhat misleading picture. IANAStatistician but I happened to read the dead tree version of http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/55130 earlier today where this sort of thing is discussed. Kudos for making the original data available but I'm way too lazy to get a Russian speaking friend to translate.

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Re: "given territory" - (Anonymous), 2007-12-09 03:12 am UTC
Re: "given territory" - [info]krotty, 2007-12-09 03:38 am UTC
Re: "given territory" - [info]von_oberstein, 2007-12-09 10:54 am UTC
Re: "given territory" - [info]krotty, 2007-12-09 08:11 pm UTC
haha
(Anonymous)
2007-12-09 03:30 am UTC (link)
It's not the votes that count. It's who counts the votes. -Josef Stalin (apparently the source of this quote is disputed)

(Reply to this)

[info]alexkr00
2007-12-09 06:42 am UTC (link)
По этому поводу возникает ряд вопросов:
1. Данные для графика взяты с официального сайта избиркома (как я понимаю), они лежат в открытом доступе, с детализацией до районной избирательной комиссии. Вероятно, можно получить много других впечатляющих корреляций. Они имеются где-нибудь?
2. Опять-же доступность этой информации говорит ли о том, что они уже вообще перестали притворяться, и им уже абсолютно наплевать на то, что думают граждане, либо таки досадный прокол - не ожидали, что этим можно так воспользоваться?
3. Пользуясь такой информацией, можно значительно упростить задачу наблюдения за выборами, а именно локализовать точки наибольших злоупотреблений и на следующих выборах работать более адресно. Интересно, есть такие планы?

(Reply to this)(Thread)
(no subject) - [info]krotty, 2007-12-09 08:42 am UTC
Google Translation to English - (Anonymous), 2007-12-09 06:47 pm UTC
florida
(Anonymous)
2007-12-09 07:08 am UTC (link)
For those who scoff at Russia's election procedure, don't forget Florida 2001 (the hanging chads). Perhaps North Korea should send advisors to both next time to monitor the elections.

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Re: florida - (Anonymous), 2007-12-27 09:02 pm UTC
Re: florida - (Anonymous), 2008-01-08 12:36 pm UTC

[info]lady_kneazle
2007-12-09 08:37 am UTC (link)
Yesssss...

I'm very ashamed for my country. :(

(Reply to this)(Thread)
(no subject) - [info]krotty, 2007-12-09 08:40 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]kernelle, 2007-12-09 01:04 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]von_oberstein, 2007-12-09 10:59 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]lady_kneazle, 2007-12-09 02:04 pm UTC
Confusion about the Canadian Graph
(Anonymous)
2007-12-09 09:41 am UTC (link)
I'm a little confused about the Canadian graph. If I look at vote percentage for each party, it appears that the party percentages add up to more than 100%. For example, at 50% voter turnout it appears that that the % share of total ballots is 33% + 30% + 29% + 20% + 4% = 116%. It looks even worse when you look at the locations where there is 75% voter turnout: 50% + 38% + 32% + 16% + 5% = 141%

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Re: Confusion about the Canadian Graph - (Anonymous), 2007-12-09 01:26 pm UTC
Re: Confusion about the Canadian Graph - (Anonymous), 2007-12-12 09:43 pm UTC
What about Bush?
(Anonymous)
2007-12-09 11:39 am UTC (link)
Exellent work!
Care to do the sae analysis for 2000 & 2004 elections in US ?
I bet tons of people would be very interested!

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Re: What about Bush? - (Anonymous), 2007-12-09 04:14 pm UTC

[info]radkin
2007-12-09 05:29 pm UTC (link)
вы еще не видели процедуры этого "тайного" головования - в Москве! на избирательном участке кабины были полностью открытые, бюллетени специальные тетеньки брали из рук избирателя и в развернутом виде ВВЕРХ изображением совали в "электронную" тумбу... так что все ходы записаны, где не 100%, там скоро будет 110%
картинка повторилась в точности на 3 участках, наблюдателям на двух был задан вопрос (нами), обещали присмотреться... ага...

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Google Translation to English - (Anonymous), 2007-12-09 06:49 pm UTC
another method, used before, to check Ukrainian ballot
[info]mikhail_f
2007-12-09 05:56 pm UTC (link)
an example here:
http://alexfroloff.livejournal.com/28076.html

Еще один метод - несколько уже опубликованных американских статей использовали его (в частности, в комбинации с вашим и другими) для тестирования гипотезы о фальсификациях на Украине (во время второго, омнененного тура)
Можно два вопроса?
1) нельзя ли совместить два метода в одну модель
2) можно ли у Вас (у читателей) уточнить, не лучше ли здесь использовать другое распределение, где нормальное было бы частным случай. Кто-то мне говорил, что предпосылка нормальности не совсем верна здесь (причем не только и сколько потому что верхний предел 100).

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Google Translation to English - (Anonymous), 2007-12-09 06:51 pm UTC
Re: Google Translation to English - [info]krotty, 2007-12-09 07:02 pm UTC

[info]tvaja_ka
2007-12-14 01:17 am UTC (link)
Hi, there is a link on post of the guy who has done the similar job
http://podmoskovnik.livejournal.com/3915.html (in russian)

(Reply to this)(Thread)
(no subject) - [info]tvaja_ka, 2007-12-14 01:20 am UTC

(Anonymous)
2007-12-18 02:12 am UTC (link)
wanna puke

(Reply to this)

[info]oleyka
2008-01-03 08:52 am UTC (link)
The situation in Russia gets increasingly more disturbing and sad...

(Reply to this)(Thread)
Barack Obama Screensavers - (Anonymous), 2008-04-11 10:49 pm UTC

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