| Detailed: Putin's Party Share and Invalid Ballots vs. Turnout (%) |
[Dec. 8th, 2007|12:54 am] |
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| A Model for the Observed Election Data |
[Dec. 8th, 2007|11:06 pm] |
The model of election adopted from ![[info]](http://stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif) slobin:
There is one control parameter X - the degree of control over election outcome, that varies from region to region. It includes control over the minds of the people with propaganda, forced attendance, forced vote for a given party, a ballot filled for a person by somebody else, or a ballot posted for a person that never came to elections. The end result is the same - X% of the voters will vote for our party no matter what. This parameter varies from region to region. In some places it is 100%.
The rest of the population (1-X) % are not affected by this and vote the way they want. Most of them just stay out of the whole thing for obvious reasons, but say 50% of them actually go and vote. The distribution of their votes across different parties doesn't change much in different regions.
The important point is that given only the results there is no way to look inside of X and say how specifically this X was achieved. |
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